Chip manufacturers' inventories are high, and Taiwan's foundry revenue may fall by 6.8% in the fourth quarter

市场研究机构 DIGITIMES Research 表示，全球主要芯片供货商在看好 2012年下半年全球景气乐观预期下，纷纷于2012年第二季大力回补库存，此亦造就2012年第二季台湾地区The combined revenue of the top three wafer foundries reached $5.41 billion, with a quarterly growth rate of 21.1%.

 

In the third quarter of 2012, although the revenue of the top three wafer foundries in Taiwan from communications, computers, consumer electronics and other application departments increased compared with the previous quarter, according to DIGITIMES Research statistics, the sharp increase in revenue in the second quarter has made the comparison base relatively high, and the other方面欧债问题仍悬而未决，使得全球景气增长表现未如预期，合计营收金额达58.7亿美元，仅较前季增长8.5%，增长力道明显减弱。

 

In the face of poor global economic prospects, the inventory of the world's major chip suppliers reached a record high of US$16.51 billion in the third quarter of 2012. However, under the expectation of weakening terminal demand, it is estimated that the action of eliminating inventory will continue until the second quarter of 2013, which will also be detrimental to the fourth quarter revenue performance of the top three wafer foundries in Taiwan, and the pace of capacity expansion has not stopped due to the deterioration of the economy, and it is estimated that the total revenue of the top three wafer foundries in Taiwan in the fourth quarter will only reach US$5.47 billion, a decrease of 6.8% from the third quarter, but the performance is still better than the second quarter of US$5.41 billion and the same period in 2011 of US$4.38 billion. Over the same period, its capacity utilization rate may drop to 85%.

 

From the analysis of revenue changes in each process, benefiting from the hot sales of smartphones and tablets, the demand for 28nm process capacity from customers including Qualcomm (Qualcomm) and NVIDIA has become stronger, and it has also accelerated the expansion of 28nm process capacity by TSMC, and the revenue from the 28nm process has increased quarter-on-quarter from US$70 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 to US$620 million in the third quarter of 2012, accounting for 1% of revenue has also risen rapidly from 1% to 10%.

 

DIGITIMES Research pointed out that in addition to TSMC's continued expansion of 28nm process capacity in the fourth quarter, UMC's 28nm process will also contribute to revenue, and it is estimated that the top three wafer foundries in Taiwan will have revenue of US$940 million from 28nm, accounting for 17% of revenue.