A new round of United States export controls intends to restrict AI, chips, quantum sensing, robotics, face printing and voiceprint technology

A few days ago, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an export control framework for key technologies and related products, and will begin to solicit public opinions on export controls on these emerging technologies. The start of the consultation is November 19 in the United States, which will last for one month. The consultation will allow the Department of Commerce and other agencies to review and evaluate emerging technologies to update the export control list.

BIS mainly regulates specific export commodities through commercial control lists. All exports of goods that have an Export Control Classification Number (ECCN) on the control list and are not exempted are subject to export controls.

The regulations under consideration cover 14 areas, including biotechnology, artificial intelligence, deep learning, positioning and navigation, microprocessor technology, etc.

1. Biotechnology, such as nanobiology; Synthetic Biology; genomic and genetic engineering; Neuroscience.

2. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technologies, such as: neural networks and deep learning (e.g., brain simulation, time series prediction, classification); evolutionary and genetic computing (e.g., genetic algorithms, genetic programming); reinforcement learning; Computer vision (e.g., object recognition, image understanding); expert systems (e.g., decision support systems, teaching systems); speech and audio processing (e.g., speech recognition and production); natural language processing (e.g., machine translation); planning (e.g., scheduling, gaming); audio and video processing technologies (e.g., voice cloning, deepfakes); AI cloud technology; AI chipset.

3. Positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) technology.

4. Microprocessor technology, such as: system-on-chip (SoC); On-chip stack memory.

5. Advanced computing technology, such as memory-centric logic.

6. Data analysis technology, such as: visualization; automated analysis algorithms; Context-aware computing.

7. Quantum information and sensing technologies, such as: quantum computing; quantum encryption; Quantum Sensing.

8. Logistics technology, such as mobile power system; modeling and simulation systems; overall visibility of assets; Distribution-based logistics system (DBLS).

9. Additive manufacturing (such as 3D printing).

10. Robots, such as micro drones and micro robot systems; cluster technology; self-assembling robots; molecular robots; Robot compiler; Smart Dust.

11. Brain-computer interface, such as neural control interface; Awareness - Machine Interface; direct neural interface; Brain-computer interface.

12. Hypersonic aerodynamics, such as flight control algorithms; Advancement technology; thermal protection system; Specialized materials (for structures, sensors, etc.).

13. Advanced materials, such as: adaptive camouflage; Functional textiles (e.g., advanced fiber and fabric technologies); Biomaterials.

14. Advanced monitoring technology, such as face printing and voiceprint technology.

The Ministry of Commerce said in the previous notice that in the process of reviewing emerging and basic technologies, it will consider the development of these technologies abroad, the impact of export controls on the development of such technologies in the United States, and the effectiveness of export controls in limiting the proliferation of these emerging technologies abroad.

According to the provisions of the Export Administration Regulations, all goods in the United States, goods produced by the United States outside the United States, and goods produced by other countries using American raw materials and technologies are subject to the scope of the Export Administration Regulations, except for publicly distributed technology and software, humanities and non-scientific publications, and some goods subject to the jurisdiction of other agencies (such as military products, nuclear raw materials, etc.). At its core, it restricts or prohibits any person or company from conducting and regulating transactions with a specific country or company in connection with controlled goods. "Export license" is the main means for EAR to control export commodities. Export enterprises mainly judge whether they need to apply for a license and what kind of license they apply for based on the following four dimensions: the type of export goods, the country of destination of export, the end user of the export goods and the end use of the export goods.

From the perspective of the structure of high-tech exports, the structure of high-tech product exports from the United States to China is relatively similar to the world average, mainly concentrated in the three major fields of aerospace, electronic products, and information and communication technology, accounting for more than 10%. Among them, aerospace accounted for more than 45.7% of U.S. high-tech exports to China, exceeding the world average of 37.3%. However, the proportion of high-tech exports to China is only 12.7%, far lower than the global average of 26.7%, and imports of this product have also shown a downward trend this year. This is largely due to China's accumulation of a certain degree of international competitiveness in this field, and the United States has a large number of imports from China, which accounted for 60% of the total imports of high-tech products from China by the United States in 2017. Therefore, information and communication technology is also an important category of tariffs imposed by the United States on China in this trade war.

In order to estimate the impact of control measures on US exports to China, we first calculate the proportion of US exports of 10 ATP products to China in total exports to China. If it is lower than the average, it means that the control measures are more affected, and we use the global average to measure the proportion of exports of the product without export control measures.

In the table above, we can see that China's imports in the fields of biotechnology, information and communication technology and weapons are lower than the global average. We assume that the proportion data of these three industries is the same as the global average, and as a result of excluding controls, we find that this can increase the proportion of China's imports of high-tech products to the United States to 30.8%, which can increase our country's annual imports to the United States by about $6 billion, but this is still relatively small compared to the annual imports to the United States of more than 100 billion yuan and the Sino-US trade difference of 300 billion US dollars, and it is difficult to reverse the trade deficit.