The new round of export controls in the United States intends to restrict AI, chips, quantum sensing, robotics, face printing and voiceprint technology

Recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an export control framework for key technologies and related products, and will begin to solicit public comments on export controls on these emerging technologies. The consultation opens on November 19 in the United States for one month. The consultation will allow Commerce and other agencies to review and evaluate emerging technologies to update export control lists.

BIS mainly regulates specific export commodities through commercial control lists. All exports of goods that have an Export Control Classification Number (ECCN) on the control list and are not exempt are subject to export control.

The regulation considered covers 14 areas, including biotechnology, artificial intelligence, deep learning, location navigation, microprocessor technology, etc.

1. Biotechnology, such as nanobiology; synthetic biology; genomic and genetic engineering; Neuroscience.

2. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning techniques, such as: neural networks and deep learning (e.g., brain simulation, time series forecasting, classification); evolutionary and genetic computing (e.g. genetic algorithms, genetic programming); reinforcement learning; computer vision (e.g., object recognition, image understanding);
Expert systems (e.g. decision support systems, teaching systems); speech and audio processing (e.g., speech recognition and production); natural language processing (e.g. machine translation); planning (e.g., scheduling, gaming); audio and video processing technologies (e.g., voice cloning, deepfakes); AI cloud technology; AI chipset.

3. Positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) technology.

4. Microprocessor technology, such as: system-on-chip (SoC); On-chip stack memory.

5. Advanced computing technology, such as memory-centric logic.

6. Data analysis technology, such as: visualization; automatic analysis algorithms; Context-aware computing.

7. Quantum information and sensing technology, such as: quantum computing; quantum encryption; Quantum sensing.

8. Logistics technology, such as: mobile power system; modeling and simulation systems; Overall asset visibility; Distribution-based logistics system (DBLS).

9. Additive manufacturing (e.g. 3D printing).

10. Robots, such as: micro-drones and micro-robot systems; clustering technology; self-assembling robots; molecular robots; robot compiler; Smart mote.

11. Brain-computer interface, such as: neural control interface; Consciousness-machine interface; direct neural interfaces; Brain-computer interface.

12. Hypersonic aerodynamics, such as: flight control algorithms; propulsion technology; thermal protection system; Specialized materials (for structures, sensors, etc.).

13. Advanced materials, such as: adaptive camouflage; functional textiles (e.g. advanced fiber and fabric technologies); Biomaterials.

14. Advanced monitoring technology, such as: face printing and voiceprint technology.

In its prior notice, the Commerce Department said that in reviewing emerging and foundational technologies, consideration will be given to the development of these technologies abroad, the impact that export controls may have on the development of such technologies in the United States, and the effectiveness of export controls in limiting the spread of these emerging technologies abroad.

According to the provisions of the Export Administration Regulations, except for publicly available technology and software, humanities and non-scientific and technological publications, and some commodities subject to the jurisdiction of other institutions (such as military products, nuclear materials, etc.), all goods in the United States, goods produced by the United States outside the United States, and goods from other countries produced using American raw materials and technologies are within the scope of the Export Administration Regulations. Its core content is to restrict or prohibit any person or company from trading with a specific country or company in connection with controlled items. "Export licenses" are the main means by which the EAR controls export goods. Export enterprises mainly judge whether they need to apply for a license and what kind of license to apply for through the following four dimensions: the category of export goods, the country of export destination, the end user of the exported goods and the end use of the exported goods.

From the perspective of the structure of high-tech exports, the export structure of high-tech products from the United States to China is relatively similar to the world average, mainly concentrated in the three major fields of aerospace, electronic products, and information and communication technology, accounting for more than 10%. Among them, the proportion of aerospace in the United States' high-tech exports to China is as high as 45.7%, exceeding the world average of 37.3%. However, the proportion of ICT exports to China in high-tech exports is only 12.7%, far lower than the global average of 26.7%, and imports of this product have also shown a downward trend this year. In large part, this is due to China's accumulation of a certain degree of international competitiveness in this field, and the United States has a large import of China, which accounted for 60% of the total high-tech products imported by the United States from China in 2017. Therefore, information and communication technology is also an important category of tariffs imposed by the United States on China in this trade war.

In order to estimate the impact of the control measures on US exports to China, we first calculate the proportion of US exports of 10 ATP products to China in the total exports to China, if this proportion is higher than the global average, it means that such products are less affected by the export control measures; Below the average, it means that the control measures are more affected, and we use the global average to measure the proportion of exports that the product should have without export control measures.

In the table above, we can see that China's share of imports in the fields of biotechnology, information and communication technology and weapons is lower than the global average. We assume that the proportion of these three industries is the same as the global average, and as a result of removing controls, we find that this can increase China's imports of high-tech products to the United States to 30.8%, which can increase China's annual imports to the United States by about 6 billion US dollars, but this is still not much impact on the annual import volume of more than 100 billion yuan to the United States and the 300 billion US dollar trade balance, and it is difficult to reverse the trade deficit.