Among them, about 65% of the new 12-inch production capacity is mature process (28nm and above), and the annual growth rate of this process capacity reaches 20%, which shows that most of the wafer foundries in 2022 will focus on the expansion center of 12-inch wafer capacity, and the mature process is the main axis, and the main expansion momentum comes from TSMC, UMC, SMIC, and Huahong Group's HHGrace. and Hefei Nexchip.
Since the recent expansion activities of process nodes above 28nm focus on the diversified development of specialty processes, TrendForce Consulting analyzes the recent trends of special processes based on Power-related, MCU, AMOLED driver ICs and other products with continuous demand in the near future. First of all, the Power-related power semiconductor process can be roughly divided into two categories: power discrete and power IC, among which, power discrete with power transistors such as MOSFET and IGBT as the mainstream product, is rapidly increased by the increase in the consumption of unit power components of 5G infrastructure, consumer fast charging, automotive electronics, electric vehicles and other products. The overall market has long been dominated by international IDM factories, such as Infineon, Onsemi, STMicroelectronics, etc., with global IDM factories accounting for about 80~90% of the market, and fabless accounting for about 10~20%. In terms of wafer foundries, in addition to the increasing demand for existing fabless customers, IDM factories have also successively outsourced products to wafer foundries in recent years due to the conservative expansion process of IDM's own factories, resulting in frequent shortages. Among them, HHGrace's power discrete revenue scale in 2021 is the largest in the pure wafer foundry field, and as Wuxi's 12-inch new production capacity continues to help revenue performance, and PSMC and Vanguard have recently increased their eight-inch production capacity to undertake related orders.
In terms of PMIC, most of the BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) platform technology is adopted at this stage, and the eight-inch 0.18-0.11μm process node is the mainstream. Benefiting from the upgrading of technical specifications such as 5G smartphones, data centers, and electric vehicles, the demand for PMIC has increased significantly in recent years, however, due to the limited increase in eight-inch production capacity, and in response to the demand for peripheral material updates driven by the release of a new generation of main chips, various wafer foundries have also successively assisted customers to transfer some PMICs to 12-inch production, while PMIC is planned to transfer to 90/55nm process nodes, and is mainly used in smartphones, servers and other applications, including TSMC, UMEC, PLMC, HHGrace, SMIC, etc. have layouts.
eNVM (embedded Non-Volatile Memory) process technology is quite diverse, mostly used in smart cards, MCUs and other products, and now eFlash is the mainstream technology. Among them, MCUs are widely used, such as consumer electronics such as information and communication products, home appliances, Internet of Things products, industrial control, automotive and other functional instructions simple to multiple complex applications, MCU components will be used, and MCU with memory process technology is also slightly different according to functionality. Although the demand for consumer MCUs is relatively flat due to weak market conditions, the stocking momentum of MCUs required for automotive and industrial control is still strong, making MCU products still relatively scarce materials. In addition, driven by the short-term impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and the cost factors of MCU products moving to more advanced process nodes in the medium and long term, especially under the condition that the cost of process expansion below 40nm (inclusive) has increased significantly, IDM has increased the force of outsourcing orders to stimulate the layout of wafer foundries. Among them, Taiwanese wafer foundries have entered mass production earlier than 40nm (inclusive) and have mature technology, and have also undertaken IDM large factory orders, while SMIC, HHGrace and other technologies are about a generation later, and HHGrace production capacity is the largest in mainland China.
HV (High Voltage) process technology is mainly used in the production of display driver ICs, the current mainstream includes the production of large/small size driver ICs at eight-inch 0.18-0.11um process nodes, TDDI production at twelve-inch 65/55nm, and smartphone AMOLED driver ICs at 40/28nm. Since the beginning of 2022, the market conditions of smartphones and consumer electronics have continued to be sluggish, making the supply of large-size driver ICs and TDDI gradually return to balance, however, because the overall mobile phone introduction AMOLED penetration rate is still steadily increasing, it is predicted that the medium and long-term mobile phone AMOLED driver IC still has growth momentum, including Samsung, TSMC, UMC, SMIC have plans to develop 28nm HV, and the rest such as HHGrace or Hefei Jinghe integrated process technology is still based on 65/55nm. It does not yet have the capability to mass-produce AMOLED driver ICs.
It is estimated that the mature process will maintain nearly 75~80% of the production capacity in the next three years
TrendForce Consulting survey, the global wafer foundry capacity in 2021~2024 compound annual growth rate of 11%, of which 28nm production capacity in 2024 will reach 1.3 times in 2022, is the most active process node for mature process expansion, it is expected that more special process applications will be transferred to 28nm, and in 2021~2024, the global mature process capacity above 28nm (inclusive) will maintain a stable proportion of 75~80%. Shows the market potential and importance of mature layout, process special process, and market.
At the same time, TrendForce Consulting said that due to the impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain and geopolitical impact, regional "short chain production" and supply chain autonomy began to become key considerations for wafer foundry expansion, such as Taiwanese wafer foundries in order to cooperate with regional production and improve capacity scheduling flexibility, there are corresponding expansion layouts everywhere, except for TSMC's US factory focusing on advanced processes, the rest of the expansion planning focuses on special process processes. In addition, the recent expansion activities can also clearly show that the terrestrial foundry is actively expanding mature process technology and capacity planning, and allocating and producing key materials such as HV, MCU, PMIC, power discrete, etc., in order to enhance supply chain autonomy and meet the needs of the automotive, consumer electronics, information and communication industries.
