Among them, about 65% of the new 12-inch production capacity is a mature process (28nm and above), and the annual growth rate of this process capacity reaches 20%, which shows that in 2022, most of the wafer foundries will focus on the expansion of 12-inch wafer production capacity, and the mature process is the main axis, and the main expansion momentum comes from TSMC, UMC, SMIC, and HHGrace, a subsidiary of HuaHong Group. and Hefei Jinghe Integration (Nexchip).
Since the recent expansion activities of process nodes above 28nm focus on the diversified development of special processes, TrendForce analyzes the recent trends of special processes based on Power-related, MCU, AMOLED driver ICs and other products that have continued to be in demand recently. First of all, Power-related power semiconductor processes can be roughly divided into two categories: power discrete and power IC, among which power discrete with MOSFET, IGBT and other power transistors as the mainstream products, is affected by the rapid growth of demand due to the increase in the consumption of power components per unit of products such as 5G infrastructure, consumer fast charging, automotive electronics, and electric vehicles. The overall market has long been dominated by international IDM factories, such as Infineon, onsemi, STM, etc., with global IDM factories accounting for about 80~90% of the market and fabless accounting for about 10~20%. In terms of wafer foundries, in addition to the increasing demand from existing fabless customers year by year, in recent years, due to the conservative expansion process of IDM's own factories, there has been frequent shortage of supply, and IDM factories have successively outsourced their products to wafer foundries. Among them, HHGrace's power discrete revenue scale in 2021 is the largest in the pure wafer foundry field, and with the release of new production capacity of 12 inches in Wuxi, it continues to help revenue performance, while PSMC and Vanguard have also recently increased their 8-inch production capacity to undertake related orders.
In terms of PMIC, most of them adopt BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) platform technology at this stage, and the manufacturing of eight-inch 0.18-0.11μm process nodes is the mainstream. However, due to the limited increase in 8-inch production capacity and the demand for updating peripheral materials driven by the release of a new generation of main chips, wafer foundries have also successively assisted customers to transfer some PMICs to 12-inch production, and PMIC plans to transfer the process node to 90/55nm, and mainly for smartphones, servers and other applications, including TSMC, UMC, PSMC, HHGrace, SMIC, etc. have layouts.
eNVM (embedded Non-Volatile Memory) process technology is quite diverse, most of which are used in smart cards, MCUs and other products, and now eFlash is the mainstream technology. Among them, MCU is used for a wide range of purposes, such as consumer electronics such as information and communication products, home appliances, Internet of Things products, industrial control, automotive and other functional instructions to multiple complex applications, all MCU components will be used, and MCU with memory process technology is also slightly different according to functionality. Although the demand for consumer MCUs is relatively flat due to weakening market conditions, the momentum of MCU stocking required for automotive and industrial control is still strong, making MCU products still relatively scarce. In addition, driven by the short-term impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and the cost factors of MCU products to more advanced process nodes in the medium and long term, especially in the case of a significant increase in the cost of expanding the production of processes below 40nm (inclusive), IDM has increased its outsourcing efforts to stimulate the layout of wafer foundries. Among them, Taiwanese wafer foundries entered mass production earlier and the technology was mature, and they also undertook the release of orders from major IDM manufacturers, while SMIC, HHGrace and other technologies were about a generation later, and the production capacity of HHGrace was the largest in mainland China.
The HV (High Voltage) process process is mainly used in the production of display driver ICs, and the current mainstream includes the production of large/small size driver ICs with eight-inch 0.18-0.11um process nodes, the production of TDDI at 12-inch 65/55nm, and the production of AMOLED driver ICs for smartphones at 40/28nm. Since the beginning of 2022, the market conditions of smartphones and consumer electronics have continued to be sluggish, making the supply of large-size driver ICs, TDDI, etc. gradually return to balance, but because the overall penetration rate of AMOLED introduction in mobile phones is still steadily increasing, it is predicted that the AMOLED driver ICs of mobile phones in the medium and long term still have growth momentum, including Samsung, TSMC, UMC, and SMIC all have plans to develop 28nm HV, and the rest such as HHGrace or Hefei Jinghe integrated process technology are still dominated by 65/55nm. And it does not yet have the ability to mass-produce AMOLED driver ICs.
It is estimated that the mature process will maintain nearly 75~80% of the production capacity in the next three years
According to TrendForce's survey, the compound annual growth rate of global wafer foundry production capacity in 2021~2024 will reach 11%, of which 28nm production capacity will reach 1.3 times that of 2022 in 2024, which is the most active process node for mature process expansion, and it is expected that more special process applications will move to 28nm, and the global mature process production capacity above 28nm (inclusive) will steadily maintain a proportion of 75~80% in 2021~2024. It shows the market potential and importance of mature processes and special processes.
At the same time, TrendForce Consulting said that due to the impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain and geopolitical impact, regional "short-chain production" and supply chain autonomy have begun to become key considerations for wafer foundry expansion. In addition, the recent expansion activities also clearly show that mainland wafer foundries are actively expanding mature process technology and capacity planning, allocating and producing key materials such as HVs, MCUs, PMICS, and power discretes, with the aim of improving supply chain autonomy to meet the needs of automotive, consumer electronics, and information and communication industries.
