The semiconductor industry is weak, and global wafer equipment spending will decline this year and next

International ResearchAccording to the latest forecast released by Gartner, global wafer equipment (WFE) spending totaled $31.4 billion in 2012, down 13.3% from $36.2 billion in 2011.

 

Although the wafer equipment market is expected to improve in 2013, Gartner does not expect a return to positive growth, with spending estimated at $31.2 billion for the year, a slight decrease of 0.8% from 2012. The global wafer equipment market is not expected to return to a positive growth trajectory until 2014, with estimated spending expected to increase by 15.3% from 2013 to $35.9 billion.

 

Bob Johnson, research vice president at Gartner, said: "The semiconductor equipment market outlook is in decline due to weak overall economic conditions. The global wafer equipment market started the year strongly due to increased production at wafer and other logic chip fabrications below 30nm; However, demand for new logic production equipment will slow as yield increases, resulting in fewer shipments in the following period. ”

 

The capacity utilization rate of the fab will decline to 80%~83% by the end of 2012, and is expected to slowly increase to about 87% by the end of 2013. The capacity utilization rate of advanced processes will rise to 87% to 89% in the second half of this year, and will further increase to 90%~93% in 2013, which is expected to provide manufacturers with a more optimistic capital investment environment.

 

Johnson further said, "While the inventory adjustment period that led to lower production appears to be coming to an end, overall market fatigue continues to dampen capacity utilization. Increased demand, combined with low yields before advanced process development matured, created a shortage of advanced logic ICs, but it was still insufficient to drive overall capacity utilization back to desired levels. In the memory market segment, some suppliers have even reduced production to support weak market fundamentals. ”

 

Gartner believes that the memory market will continue to be weak throughout 2012, with the NAND market flat due to a sharp decline in DRAM investment. Looking beyond 2012, analysts foresee a modest growth pattern, normal but fairly benign cyclical fluctuations, moderate single-digit growth in plant revenue as the industry recovers, and a corresponding increase in capital investment.

 

Foundry payroll expenses for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downwards due to earlier success in improving yield on the 28nm process by some foundries, as well as the risk of higher wafer demand declines in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. However, noIn the coming years, the wafer generation payroll (CAPEX) has been revised upwards as the industry is more active in the development of deep ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology and 18-inch wafers.

 

Since foundry foundries reduced fab capacity utilization by more than 10 percent in late 2012, Gartner believes they are likely to tighten capital expenditures over the shorter period. Wafer demand will decline for several quarters due to downward semiconductor device revisions and despite the low yield of the 28nm High-k+ metal gate (HKMG) process, some foundries have successfully improved the yield of the 28nm low-power Poly SiON process.